Regional wind in past years

[ulfp]

Now when we all are waiting for the NE that somehow got lost, perhaps some of you that have been sailing some years can compare this and last years wind to the past years...

So far I only see consistent wind in Singapore for one week (i.e. last week), the rest of the time since November seems like a whole in the air (apart from some occasional 1/2 hr storms)...

Last year I got encouraged when I saw the wind during January, and bought some short-board gears in mid February, and from there on, it was quite consistent 10-12knt NE for a whole month. Was last year an exceptionally good year or is this an exceptionally bad year, or what?
 
 [ 23. January 2003, 09:10 PM: Message edited by: ulfp ]

[P.J.]

Hi Ulfp

I can only share that compared to the last 4 years, the best about last yr monsoon was till April, we are still getting good wind every weekend especially on Formulas.

This year the moonsoon came late as well. Last few year around Nov we are getting NE storm and you can see clouds moving fast. By around Christmas, the NE will hit full force.

What I do not understand is that if NE is caused by the cold front from the north, China is experiencing the coldest winter for the last 6 years, it should mean we have the best NE, Why not ?

[sukhdev]

Been sailing the northeast since 82/83. This is the worst ever. from 83 thru till 95 or so monsoons were pretty standard. We then had a couple of lame years, last year was excellent.

In 88' a couple of us managed to get historical wind records from Kuantan airport spanning 10 years. These showed quite consistently about a 90 day stretch with wind somewhere between Nov and March. The records also showed January to be the windiest month by far.

PJ, re cold fronts, we are right on the equator so we are not only affected by cold fronts but also by warm moist air from the south. This being an El Nino year, my half baked theory is that the warm wet air is coming further north than usual; thus the extra rain etc.

Whatever the case, at least the monsoon has been kind to us for both the events.

[<aLOHa>]

quote:PJ, re cold fronts, we are right on the equator so we are not only affected by cold fronts but also by warm moist air from the south. This being an El Nino year, my half baked theory is that the warm wet air is coming further north than usual; thus the extra rain etc.
 

in general, during El Nino, rainfall and thunderstorm activity diminishes over the western equatorial Pacific (Indon etc), and increases over the eastern half of the tropical Pacific. This area of increased rainfall occurs where the exceptionally warm ocean waters have reached about 28°C or 82°F. This overall pattern of rainfall departures spans nearly one-half the distance around the globe, and is responsible for many of the global weather impacts caused by El Niño.

more specific infor on El Nino and La Nina :

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.html#STRONGEST

happy weather reading while waiting for the NE to kickback again.

[sukhdev]

Loh, thanks! great link. Other than the racing, been on my wave board only once  

[ulfp]

Over the past few days, I have been checking out the wind observations from wunderground for the airports at  Batam and Bintan ( Tanjungpinang), and I have noticed that over the past few days, the wind at Batam has often been in the region of 14-18mph (stands at 17 when I'm posting this). Since Tanjungpinang is a bit on the back-side of Bintan, the observations from there seems to be a bit lower. Have also cross checked the  radar map and can't seem to relate the wind observation with any thunderstorms. Does anyone know if the Batam observations (pretty near to ManaMana) is is a reflection of the conditions at ManaMana i.e. are they having 10+knt at ManaMana this week?
 
 [ 24. January 2003, 04:10 PM: Message edited by: ulfp ]

[sukhdev]

Ulf, I'll ask Peter to monitor but from past experience you often can have a 15+ knot day in manamana while its dead calm here. One memorable day a couple of years ago, I was on a 5.4 the whole day over there and got back here to be told it had been calm.

when you go over on the ferry, the windline is very obvious midway through the channel. Swell pattern changes as well at that point.

It literally took a few years before anyone would believe us about how windy it was over there, not to mention real waves...

[<IJ>]

Ulf
Can confirm what Sukhdev says about Mana Mana. Have sailed many days over the years on 6.0/7.0 when there is no wind in Spore.
I think you may have been tricked by the exceptional wind Jan/Feb 2002. In my opinion the NE is overrated in Spore and tends to consist of the odd windy few days or so, spread over several months. If you want a more consistant NE, Mana Mana is the place